Morgan Stanley sees TIM deal boosting Poste Italiane earnings and dividends
Morgan Stanley restarted coverage of Poste Italiane with an Overweight rating and a €29 target, pointing to the Telecom Italia acquisition as a key growth driver. Poste owns 86.95% of TIM, and the planned integration aims for €700 million in annual pre-tax benefits, split between €500 million of cost savings and more than €200 million of added revenue. The bank expects EPS to fall to €1.69 in 2027 before recovering to €2.33 in 2028, with a €1.84 dividend per share projected for 2029.
Morgan Stanley resumed covering Poste Italiane on 13 October 2026 with an Overweight call and a €29 valuation target. The bank treats the Telecom Italia purchase as central to its thesis, noting Poste controls 86.95% of TIM after the takeover.
The integration is projected to yield €700 million in yearly pre-tax gains: €500 million from cost reductions and over €200 million from extra revenue. Morgan Stanley sees EPS easing to €1.69 in 2027, then reaching €2.33 in 2028, with a €1.84 per-share dividend forecast for 2029.
The combination could affect Italian households and businesses that rely on Poste and TIM for communications, payments, insurance and postal services. Employees may experience restructuring as cost savings are pursued, while customers might see service changes. Investors, including small savers, may benefit if dividends rise, though integration risks and debt reduction needs could temper returns. Wider effects may depend on how management handles competition, service quality and job transitions.