Polymarket Saw $600M in Election Trades After Results Were Decided
Polymarket's election markets for Ethiopia and Romania generated more than $600 million in trading volume, with much of it occurring after the outcomes were known. Most trades involved long-shot losing candidates, and about $284 million in the Ethiopian market came from pairs of accounts repeatedly trading with each other, according to a former Polymarket trader. Experts called the pattern likely volume manipulation, while Polymarket said it flagged and investigated the activity.
Ethiopia’s ruling Prosperity Party won 438 parliamentary seats, while its nearest rival took 13, making Abiy Ahmed’s continued leadership effectively certain. Yet Polymarket’s Ethiopian contract drew only about $173,000 on Ahmed, versus more than $41 million on his chief of staff, Shimelis Abdisa. Overall volume exceeded $285 million, mostly on candidates who lost.
Roughly $284 million reportedly came from paired accounts trading back and forth, according to former trader Chris Park. The market remained unresolved for 123 days after the vote. In Romania, a 2024 contest was canceled over foreign-interference concerns; Polymarket kept the old market open beside a later replacement, and an algorithm flagged 99.6% of certain weeks’ volume as wash trading.
Prediction-market credibility could suffer if unresolved or manipulated contracts remain visible. Traders, journalists, and researchers who rely on these platforms as sentiment indicators may be misled by inflated volume. Platforms may face pressure to improve monitoring and market-closure rules. Regulators and general audiences could become more skeptical of claims that such markets reliably reflect public opinion.