NOAA winter outlook points to wetter southern U.S. and warmer northern states under strong El Niño
NOAA’s 2026–27 winter outlook favors above-average precipitation from California to Florida and along the East Coast, with warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the northern United States. The Climate Prediction Center reported a weekly Niño-3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly of +2.4°C. Drought conditions are expected to improve or end in the Southwest, Southern Great Plains, Southeast, and parts of the East Coast.
NOAA’s seasonal map covers December 2026 through February 2027. The CPC’s October 15 update put the weekly Niño-3.4 anomaly at +2.4°C, with Niño-3 at +3.4°C and Niño-1+2 at +4.4°C. Eastern equatorial Pacific waters ran more than 2°C above normal, and some areas near South America reached about 4°C above average.
The agency also assigned above-normal precipitation odds exceeding 70% in parts of the far Southeast and northern Florida for January–March 2027. Drought relief is favored in the Southwest, Southern Great Plains, Southeast, and parts of the East Coast, while worsening is favored in the northern Rockies, northeastern Oregon, and eastern Washington.
Communities and industries across the southern tier could benefit if expected rain eases long-running drought, supporting water supplies, agriculture, and reservoirs. At the same time, heavier precipitation may raise localized flood and infrastructure risks. In northern states, milder conditions could reduce heating demand but may affect winter recreation and seasonal planning. Emergency managers, farmers, utilities, and water agencies may need to prepare for either outcome.