Service Projects 1,509 Mission-Capable Fighters Required by 2035
A new report sent to lawmakers estimates that the Air Force would need 1,509 fighters ready for combat by 2035 to accept a moderate level of risk. For a lower-risk posture, the projection rises to 1,723 aircraft, an increase over the prior year's figure. Lt. Gen. David Tabor also confirmed that a possible new-production F-16 is under consideration, though he described the timing as not pressing.
The Air Force’s latest fighter-force review, mandated by Congress and dated August 2026, updates an earlier unclassified study sent to lawmakers. It also argues for revising the way combat-ready aircraft are tallied, drawing on observations from the conflict with Iran.
The report sets 1,509 ready fighters as the moderate-risk target for 2035 and 1,723 for a lower-risk posture, up from last year’s 1,558 low-risk figure. Lt. Gen. David Tabor, deputy chief of staff for plans and programs, said planners usually accept moderate risk. A new-production F-16 remains under consideration, but he said timing is not urgent.
The projected fighter requirements could shape future defense budgets and procurement choices, affecting taxpayers, aerospace workers, and communities tied to bases and factories. Lawmakers may use the report to scrutinize readiness and spending, while airmen and maintenance crews could see changes in training, equipment, and deployment demands. Because the figures describe risk rather than a final purchase plan, their practical effect may depend on later budget and policy decisions.