Morningstar Lifts SpaceX Valuation After Strong Quarter, but Sees Shares as Overpriced
SpaceX beat third-quarter revenue expectations by $1.9 billion, prompting Morningstar to raise its fair value estimate to $70 from $62. That estimate remains well below the stock’s $147.79 close, and Morningstar still views the shares as significantly overvalued. The company’s valuation depends on delivering very high future earnings and meeting its revenue guidance.
Morningstar’s Nicolas Owens lifted his fair-value estimate by $8 after SpaceX’s data-center expansion outpaced expectations. The quarter included $14.6 billion in revenue, a $1.9 billion beat, net income of $4.4 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of $8.8 billion. AI unit Super Intelligence brought in $7.6 billion, while connectivity and space revenue reached $5.2 billion and $1.8 billion.
The stock closed at $147.79 on Oct. 20, far above Morningstar’s $70 estimate. JPMorgan’s Doug Anmuth raised his target to $500 from $240. SpaceX guided first-quarter 2027 revenue to $33 billion–$37 billion, and consensus EPS stood at $2.25 for 2027 and $4.89 for 2028.
A valuation gap this wide could shape how investors, employees with equity awards, and suppliers view SpaceX’s prospects. If future revenue and AI targets fall short, share-price swings may affect retirement and index funds holding the stock, while heavy data-center spending could influence energy use and local infrastructure. Conversely, meeting guidance may reinforce confidence in AI-driven growth and draw more capital toward similar companies.