Tehran and Muscat Near Agreement on Strait of Hormuz, Trump Hints at Imminent Deal
Iran announced that negotiations with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz are in their final phase, while U.S. President Donald Trump indicated a deal could be reached within days. The potential agreement aims to resolve a blockade that has disrupted global shipping and contributed to months of regional tensions.
The draft agreement reportedly features a split transit system, with vessels entering the Gulf via an Iranian-managed lane and exiting through an Omani-managed lane, alongside service fees. Viewed as a temporary fix linked to a collapsed June US-Iran accord, it could restart nuclear negotiations. Final approval rests with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, unseen publicly since being wounded early in the war.
The US-Israeli war, launched in late February, failed to achieve regime change or nuclear dismantlement, instead becoming a standoff over the strait. Since the waterway carried a fifth of global oil and gas trade, its closure has inflated energy and commodity costs, intensifying political pressure on Washington ahead of congressional elections.
A breakthrough could restore vital energy flows, potentially lowering global fuel and food prices for consumers while easing inflationary pressures on import-dependent economies. For regional shipping and insurance industries, reopening the strait may reduce operational risks and costs. However, the deal's reliance on Iranian-managed transit and fees could create a new precedent for maritime governance, possibly affecting long-term navigational norms. The outcome may also influence the political standing of leaders facing domestic electoral pressures, though implementation remains uncertain given the fragile ceasefire dynamics.