Fossil fuel emissions amplify El Niño intensity, new research concludes
A study published in Science finds that human-caused global heating is making El Niño events stronger. The current 'Godzilla' El Niño, expected to peak later this year, could push 50 million people into acute hunger. Researchers say the trend of stronger El Niños is consistent with climate change and poses severe risks to vulnerable populations.
The study analyzed fossilized coral deposits from the Galápagos Islands, dating back 1,000 years, to reconstruct historical sea surface temperatures. These corals act as natural archives, recording ocean conditions during their growth. The research shows El Niño variability has risen roughly 37% above preindustrial levels, with the most dramatic shifts occurring after 1982. This pattern rules out natural randomness, linking intensified events directly to industrialization and fossil fuel burning. The current "Godzilla" El Niño, expected to peak soon, follows this trend and is projected to break global heat records next year.
The findings establish a two-way relationship: El Niño amplifies global warming, while warming strengthens El Niño. Past super events in 1998, 2016, and 2024 each set temperature records, and the new research confirms these are not anomalies but part of a consistent, human-driven escalation. The Galápagos location is particularly sensitive, sitting at the heart of El Niño's oceanic influence.
This research could reshape how vulnerable communities prepare for climate extremes. Stronger El Niños may intensify droughts, floods, and food insecurity, with the current event potentially pushing 50 million people into acute hunger. Regions least responsible for emissions—such as parts of Africa, Asia, and Latin America—may bear the heaviest burdens. The findings could also pressure policymakers to accelerate emissions cuts, as the feedback loop between warming and El Niño suggests compounding risks. However, adaptation efforts, like early warning systems and resilient agriculture, may mitigate some impacts, though their effectiveness remains uncertain.