President campaigns in Texas to support Paxton as GOP fears losing Senate seat
President Trump visited Texas to support Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, as the state's race has become a toss-up according to recent ratings. The Cook Political Report shifted the race toward Democrats, and spending in Texas is expected to reach $446 million. Some Republicans worry that resources diverted to Texas could hurt other contests.
The Cook Political Report recently moved Texas’s Senate race to “toss-up,” reflecting a tighter contest than usual for the reliably Republican state. AdImpact now projects $446 million in political ad spending there, a sharp jump from its earlier $124 million estimate, driven by the state’s large media markets and the costly primary between Paxton and incumbent John Cornyn, which saw $135 million in combined spending. A University of Texas/Texas Policy Project poll shows Democrat Talarico leading Paxton 42–39, within the margin of error, with 14% undecided.
Republicans acknowledge the financial strain, with one donor noting that a competitive Texas is “a very expensive date.” Paxton’s $9 million second-quarter haul has eased some fundraising worries, and Thursday’s Trump-hosted event will route money to the RNC rather than directly to his campaign. Still, strategists warn that resources diverted to Texas could weaken GOP efforts in other battlegrounds like Ohio, Michigan, and Maine.
This race’s shift to a toss-up could reshape national campaign strategies, as Republicans may need to spend heavily in a state they once considered safe, potentially draining funds from closer contests elsewhere. For Texas voters, the heightened attention means more ads and outreach, but also a chance that their Senate choice becomes a proxy for national political battles. The outcome may influence future GOP investment in traditionally red states, signaling whether demographic changes and candidate quality can make such races genuinely competitive.