Texas Senate Race Gives Democrats Rare Statewide Opening
Democrats are optimistic about state Rep. James Talarico’s Senate campaign in Texas, where he leads Attorney General Ken Paxton by about five points in recent polling. Talarico returned to the trail after a nine-day absence his team attributed to flu, and he has raised $31.6 million compared with Paxton’s $18 million. A Democratic win would help the party’s Senate majority hopes and shape the 2028 presidential race.
After a nine-day campaign pause attributed to influenza, state Rep. James Talarico resumed public events, including an Austin City Limits appearance, with more stops and a CNN town hall scheduled for Oct. 14. Recent polling places him about five points ahead of Attorney General Ken Paxton, while his $31.6 million fundraising total exceeds Paxton’s $18 million.
Texas Democrats have not won a statewide contest since 1994. Paxton, impeached in 2023 and later acquitted, has also drawn attention for leaked recordings critical of the Trump administration and for a public divorce. A Talarico victory could aid Senate Democrats’ majority prospects and influence the 2028 presidential landscape.
A Talarico win could alter Senate control, affecting federal lawmaking and constituents nationwide. It may also reshape 2028 presidential calculations, drawing more donor money, media focus, and organizing to Texas. Texans across parties could see heightened engagement, while a Paxton defeat might prompt Republican reassessment. The outcome may influence how national parties approach competitive states.