Trump's Iran strategy repeats Johnson's gradualist error in Vietnam

The authors argue that President Trump's approach to Iran mirrors the limited bombing campaign President Lyndon Johnson used in Vietnam, which failed to coerce Hanoi into negotiations. They contend that Tehran is exploiting ambiguity in U.S. leadership and waiting for the midterm elections, just as North Vietnam did. The piece concludes that gradual pressure will not bring Iran to the table and that military defeat is a prerequisite for changing its behavior.

EXPANDED:

Operation Rolling Thunder, the sustained U.S. bombing campaign over North Vietnam, lasted from March 1965 through late October 1968. The Johnson administration halted the bombing for one week in May 1965 as an inducement for Hanoi to open peace talks, but North Vietnamese officials in Moscow refused to meet with the American ambassador. That rebuff did not alter the gradualist approach, which continued for three more years without producing negotiations.

The authors count sixteen separate announcements from U.S. Central Command regarding strikes on similar target sets in the current Iran campaign. They also note that Tehran has shown willingness to sign agreements, such as the June memorandum of understanding, while suggesting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may not feel bound by