WMO Seasonal Outlook: Strong El Niño Expected to Intensify Through Fall
The World Meteorological Organization's seasonal forecast indicates a strong El Niño will develop and strengthen from August to October 2026, with sea surface temperatures averaging about 2.9°C above normal. Above-average temperatures are expected worldwide, with some regions seeing wetter conditions while others face increased drought risk.
The multi-model ensemble points to a rapid escalation of El Niño conditions, with sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific projected to average roughly 2.9°C above normal for the August-October window. Forecast confidence is notably high, as the range of individual climate models remains tight, and the warming trend is expected to reach its maximum intensity by November.
Beyond the Pacific, the outlook anticipates a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, with an average anomaly of 0.6°C, while the equatorial Atlantic is also expected to remain warmer than usual. This monthly WMO bulletin serves as a flagship tool, combining global climate research to provide a three-month outlook that aids early planning and risk mitigation.
The intensifying El Niño could significantly disrupt global weather patterns, potentially bringing heavy rainfall and flooding to some coastal areas while exacerbating drought conditions in others. Agricultural sectors, water resource managers, and public health officials may face heightened challenges as above-average temperatures strain infrastructure and food production. Communities in vulnerable regions could benefit from the early warning window, allowing for proactive measures to protect livelihoods and reduce disaster risk, though the precise regional impacts remain uncertain.