Swedish centre-left bloc projected to win election, exit poll indicates
Exit polls from Sweden's general election show the centre-left opposition bloc leading with 51.3 percent of the vote, ahead of the right-wing bloc's 46.8 percent. Official counting is underway, and early results are expected soon. The race had tightened in recent weeks, with the centre-left's earlier double-digit lead shrinking to just a few points.
The exit poll figures represent a dramatic reversal from the 2022 election, when a similar survey incorrectly predicted a centre-left victory before the right-wing coalition ultimately prevailed. This year's campaign saw the opposition's commanding double-digit advantage erode to just a few points by election day, reflecting a tightening contest that defied earlier expectations.
A confirmed centre-left win would mark a significant shift for Sweden's political landscape, potentially keeping the nationalist Sweden Democrats out of government despite their strong parliamentary presence. The party, which won 20.5 percent in 2022, had been positioned for possible cabinet roles if the right had secured a majority. The outcome also carries broader European significance, coming amid recent far-right gains in Germany.
This result could influence political momentum across Europe, where left-leaning parties have struggled against rising right-wing and nationalist movements. A confirmed centre-left victory in Sweden may offer a counter-narrative to recent far-right successes, potentially affecting voter sentiment and party strategies in other European nations. The outcome also shapes Sweden's domestic governance trajectory, determining whether the Sweden Democrats gain institutional power or remain outside government, which could affect immigration, security, and social policy debates throughout the region.