Bitcoin Steady Near $77K as Fed Rate Hike Odds Climb on Inflation Data
Bitcoin held around $77,269 as traders weighed the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate increase. Inflation figures showed headline consumer prices rose 0.4% month-over-month and core prices advanced 0.3%, leading to an 85.4% probability of a 25 basis point hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting.
Bitcoin's trading window showed a two-stage pattern, initially dropping to the $76,000-$76,200 range after the inflation report before a short squeeze pushed prices toward $79,700-$79,900. That advance stalled at the 50-week simple moving average near $79,668, after which momentum faded and prices settled into a $77,200-$77,400 channel. The seven-day candlestick remains open ahead of the Sunday close.
Institutional flows showed signs of exhaustion, with Friday's $13.2 million outflow representing just 170 Bitcoin at current prices. This followed a four-day cumulative deficit of roughly $463 million, which itself came after a $1 billion inflow week. BlackRock's IBIT saw $19.2 million in outflows while VanEck HODL and MicroBT MSBT recorded modest inflows. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.97% as markets priced an 85.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting.
The convergence of inflation data and Fed rate hike expectations could create sustained volatility for Bitcoin investors, as higher yields typically pressure speculative assets. If the Fed raises rates, retail holders may face continued headwinds, though the slowing ETF outflows suggest institutional selling may be nearing exhaustion. The outcome could shape market sentiment for weeks, influencing whether Bitcoin holds the $76,000 floor or tests lower support levels.