Bitcoin's Golden Cross Confirmed as Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise; S&P 500 Gains
Bitcoin traded at $77,269, up 0.6% in 24 hours, with a golden cross technical pattern confirmed. Federal Reserve rate increase odds climbed, while the S&P 500 rose 0.86% to 7,657, reflecting broader market sentiment tied to monetary policy expectations.
Bitcoin's golden cross (50-day EMA above 200-day EMA) is the first bullish crossover since November 2025's death cross, but it coincides with Fed hike odds at 85.6% for Sept 16 and a fourth straight day of spot BTC ETF outflows ($13.3M Friday, $462.6M weekly). Ethereum ETFs took in $216M, while September BTC flows remain net positive at $622.7M. Data came from cited reporting due to a feed outage.
The S&P 500 rose 0.86% to 7,656.98, snapping a four-day skid as Brent crude pulled back ~3%. WTI slipped to $99.99 after Iran-Oman talks, though oil is up 21.6% monthly. Gold fell to $4,362, a third straight weekly decline. These moves precede the Sept 16 FOMC, where hike odds jumped from under 50% to 85.6%.
The confluence of a Bitcoin golden cross and surging Fed hike odds could create divergent pressures on retail investors and institutional funds. A hawkish hold may tighten liquidity, affecting borrowing costs and risk assets, while a dovish surprise could spark a relief rally. Oil's volatility, tied to Hormuz tensions, may feed into inflation expectations, impacting household energy bills and broader market sentiment. The FOMC decision on Sept 16 could be a pivotal moment for portfolio allocation and consumer confidence.