Super El Niño forecast to bring record warmth and extreme weather to US this winter
NOAA predicts a 75% chance that the current El Niño will become the strongest since 1950, with sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific already exceeding 2°C above average. The event has crossed the threshold for a "super" El Niño, which typically brings disruptive winter weather across the globe. Researchers link the rapid intensification to human-driven climate change, raising concerns about humanitarian impacts in vulnerable regions.
The forecast hinges on a distinction between weekly observations and seasonal averages. While weekly sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific have already surpassed the 2°C anomaly that defines a "super" event, NOAA relies on three-month rolling averages for official categorization. Still, the agency projects a greater than 90% likelihood of a very strong event emerging during the fall and winter months.
The last comparable event, in 2015-2016, produced a historic central North Pacific hurricane season and severe Caribbean drought. Researchers now see human-driven climate change as a key amplifier of this natural cycle, noting its rapid strengthening has placed additional strain on already stressed natural systems, raising concerns about humanitarian impacts in vulnerable regions.
The forecast could significantly disrupt winter routines across the US, with Southern and coastal communities facing heightened storm and flooding risks, while Northern states may see reduced snowfall. Globally, the compounding effects of a super El Niño on top of climate change could strain food and water security in vulnerable regions, potentially triggering humanitarian needs. However, outcomes remain probabilistic, and local preparedness will shape the actual societal impact.