Study Warns Super El Niño Could Kill Over 450,000 in Six Months
Climate scientists project that a super El Niño, which began in June, will raise global land temperatures enough to cause more than 451,000 additional deaths worldwide over the next six months. The University of Chicago Climate Impact Lab says these hotter conditions resemble what climate change is expected to deliver in two decades, and the toll adds to risks from droughts, wildfires and floods. Researchers urge targeted emergency actions to save tens of thousands of lives, with the hardest-hit countries facing a 1.2°C temperature increase.
The University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab based its projection on historical links between ocean-driven warming and mortality, applying them to current El Niño conditions. The study identifies Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil as facing the largest temperature spikes, with the U.S. also among the top 20 affected nations. The Red Cross network has already begun early-response measures in Asia-Pacific, including stronger warning systems and climate-resilient farming support.
Researchers stress that these deaths are separate from drought, wildfire, and flood impacts, and that the heat pattern offers a preview of conditions expected two decades from now under continued climate change. The report’s authors call for targeted, location-specific emergency actions in the coming months to reduce the projected toll.
This study could reshape how governments and aid agencies prioritize heat as a direct health threat, not just a trigger for other disasters. Vulnerable populations in tropical and low-income countries may face the heaviest burden, straining already limited healthcare and social safety nets. The projection may also pressure policymakers to accelerate climate adaptation funding, though actual outcomes depend on how quickly early-warning systems and cooling measures are deployed.