Global sub-$200 smartphone shipments forecast to drop 40% by 2030
Counterpoint Research projects that annual shipments of sub-$200 smartphones will decline by about 40% by 2030, losing over 230 million units. The contraction is driven by higher memory and chipset costs, rising minimum specifications, and reduced OEM focus on entry-tier devices. While the overall market recovers to roughly 1.2 billion units, the affordable segment's decline could slow first-time smartphone adoption in lower-income regions.
Counterpoint Research's forecast shows the sub-$200 segment shrinking from roughly 575 million units in 2025 to about 345 million by 2030. Component costs, particularly memory and chipsets, account for a larger share of entry-tier bills of materials, leaving manufacturers little room to absorb increases. Devices priced at $200 and above are projected to grow about 26% over the same period.
The mid-range, though flat in volume, becomes the strategic battleground as OEMs concentrate launches and marketing on better-specced mass-market products featuring 5G, improved cameras, longer software support, and selected AI capabilities. Used phones and delayed replacement cycles will absorb some demand previously directed to new affordable devices.
The decline of affordable new smartphones could slow digital inclusion in lower-income regions where handset cost is already a primary barrier to mobile internet access. First-time users may remain on feature phones or shared devices longer, potentially widening connectivity gaps. Operators and governments seeking to expand meaningful connectivity may need to rely more heavily on device financing, trade-in programmes, and circular-device initiatives to offset the contraction.