Sikorski Warns of Major Russian Operation and Possible False-Flag Pretext
Poland's foreign minister said Russia is preparing a significant operation this year, possibly using a false-flag attack to justify mobilization. He suggested Moscow could test NATO through hybrid or limited actions, including in the Baltics or via Belarus, while continuing its war against Ukraine and targeting its energy infrastructure.
Sikorski made his remarks Thursday at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, citing multiple intelligence sources that Moscow is preparing a significant action this year. He suggested the Kremlin could stage a false-flag incident to justify a new mobilization drive, telling the Russian public that the country is under attack.
The Polish minister also met Belarusian Foreign Minister Maksym Ryzhenkov on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly — reportedly the first such diplomatic contact since 2016. Belarus has hosted Russian nuclear weapons and permitted Russian forces to stage part of the 2022 invasion from its territory, though Minsk has not directly joined the fighting. Sikorski noted Baltic states with Russian minorities face potential escalation risk, though he called a full-scale NATO invasion unlikely.
This warning could heighten anxiety across NATO's eastern flank, particularly in Poland and the Baltic states, where populations may face increased hybrid threats such as sabotage or cyberattacks. European governments could respond with heightened vigilance and preparedness measures, affecting daily life through increased security presence. The prospect of Russian mobilization may also influence energy markets and regional stability, given Moscow's continued targeting of Ukrainian infrastructure.