Hawaii Braces for Record Third Hurricane Threat This Year
Hawaii is under a hurricane watch for the third time in 2026 as Hurricane Nolo approaches from the south of the Big Island. If Nolo comes within 50 miles of the islands, it would be the first year on record with three such storms, following Hurricane Lala in August and Hurricane Lowell in early September. An unusually strong El Niño and atmospheric conditions have made tropical cyclones more likely near the archipelago, which typically has cooler waters and wind shear that weaken such systems.
Nolo was about 200 miles south of the Big Island, moving slowly north. High pressure should turn it sharply west Saturday as a Category 3. It may avoid landfall, but could bring up to 35 inches of rain and mudslides, especially where Lala dropped 40 inches.
Hawaii usually lacks tropical cyclones because waters are cool and wind shear weakens them. A strong El Niño shifts warm Pacific water eastward, changes wind patterns, and lowers eastern Pacific shear. Yet El Niño alone does not ensure island strikes: 2015 was active but only one storm neared. In 1957, three hurricanes came within 100 miles.
If Nolo tracks near Hawaii, residents and responders on the Big Island could face renewed mudslides, road closures, power outages, and strain on emergency resources, particularly in areas still recovering from Lala. Tourists and interisland travel may also be disrupted. Repeated close calls this season may heighten community anxiety and preparedness costs, though the storm's exact path remains uncertain.