Vistra Shares Slide 31% as Texas Power Market Concerns Weigh

Vistra stock has fallen 31% over the past year, closing at $138 on September 25, 2026, amid concerns about ERCOT pricing and a Texas audit of data center grid requests. Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA rose 31% year over year to $1.77 billion, although revenue missed consensus. The Street’s mean target of $218 implies about 58% upside from that price.

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Vistra’s second-quarter results showed a split picture: adjusted EBITDA rose 31% to $1.77 billion, but revenue of $4.02 billion fell short of the roughly $5.57 billion consensus. Net income declined 6.7% to $305 million, including a $472 million unrealized hedge loss that management expects to settle in later years. The CFO said the 2027 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity was leaning toward the lower end of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion, which Vistra describes as an opportunity estimate rather than guidance.

Texas regulatory developments added uncertainty. The governor ordered an audit of planned data centers seeking grid connections, and ERCOT delayed its Batch Zero transmission-planning study. Vistra said its Comanche Peak project is not currently expected to be affected and still aims for late-2027 energization. On September 18, Luminant signed a 20-year deal to supply a Texas data center with 200 MW to 207 MW, subject to conditions. An entity tied to CEO Jim Burke and his spouse bought shares around $135.

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