Can October extend Bitcoin’s bullish run?
Bitcoin is entering October near $85,000 after gaining about 9% in September, with seasonal trends and on-chain data supporting a possible Uptober. Ten of the past 13 Octobers have been positive, and ETF demand has helped, though profit-taking is already unusually high for 2026. A break above $87,000 would reinforce the bullish case, while $83,000 remains a key support.
Bitcoin has traded between $83,000 and $85,000, consolidating after rising from $76,000 and nearing $87,000. Ten of the past 13 Octobers closed higher, though three losing years show seasonality is no guarantee. It remains about 33% below its October 2025 peak, when it exceeded $126,000 before ending that month down roughly 4%.
Adjusted MVRV data show its 30-day and 365-day averages crossed a yearly average in late August and moved above 1 in late September. Since 2012 this setup appeared six times; in four of five comparable cases, Bitcoin was worth more by the end. U.S. spot ETFs drew $433 million on September 18 after $159.5 million the day before, with August inflows at $3.52 billion.
Bitcoin’s October path may influence how retail investors and funds view risk assets. A sustained rise could encourage broader crypto adoption and draw more capital into related products, while a drop below support might dampen sentiment and expose leveraged traders to losses. Because crypto markets are increasingly tied to traditional finance, shifts could affect pension funds, fintech platforms, and households with digital-asset exposure, though outcomes remain uncertain.