Oracle Shares Sink 30% in 2026 as AI Data Center Financing Costs Mount
Oracle stock has fallen 30% year-to-date despite two earnings beats, closing at $137 on September 25. The decline is tied to financing costs for AI data centers, including an $18 billion Project Jupiter loan and a force majeure notice to Blue Owl citing possible power delays. Analysts’ mean target is $238, while TIKR’s mid-case model values the stock at $454 by May 2031.
Oracle’s two recent earnings reports exceeded expectations, yet the shares still weakened sharply. The stock reached roughly $248 in June before falling to about $116 in late July, then closed at $137 on September 25, leaving it down 30% for the year.
The pressure centers on Project Jupiter, a 2.45-gigawatt New Mexico campus being built by Blue Owl’s STACK Infrastructure for OpenAI. Oracle agreed to cover energy costs and debt service on $18 billion in bank loans. A September 24 force majeure notice cited possible power delays, and a person familiar described a one-year delay. Credit default swaps reached 221.78 basis points.
Oracle’s financing strain could ripple beyond its shareholders. Pension funds and index investors may feel it through portfolio values, while creditors watch default-insurance costs and loan terms. Employees and suppliers tied to AI data-center construction could face uncertainty if delays persist. Communities hosting large campuses may see shifting timelines for power demand, tax revenue, and grid planning. The outcome may also influence how quickly AI services expand and how broadly their costs are shared, though the story’s long-term social effects remain uncertain.