Eli Lilly’s 31% Six-Month Rally Faces Upcoming Obesity Drug Data
Eli Lilly stock has climbed 31% over six months, closing at $1,162 on September 23, helped by Q1 and Q2 earnings beats and raised 2026 revenue guidance. Mounjaro and Zepbound generated $14.9 billion in Q2 sales, and the FDA approved oral GLP-1 Foundayo. Upcoming mid-stage data for eloralintide combined with Zepbound is the next key test, with Citi viewing 16% to 18% weight loss as solid.
Lilly’s rebound followed two quarterly beats. Q1 adjusted EPS was $8.55 versus $6.66 expected, with $19.8B revenue. Q2 revenue grew 48% year over year, adjusted EPS was $8.38 versus $6.01 expected, and full-year revenue guidance rose to $85B-$87B.
Mounjaro and Zepbound contributed $14.9B in Q2 sales. Foundayo, an oral GLP-1, was approved April 1 and holds over 30% of new US oral GLP-1 starts. Retatrutide showed over 28% weight loss in a late-stage trial.
Wider availability of obesity medicines could affect patients, employers, and health systems. If upcoming data support combination therapy, more treatment options may emerge, potentially influencing insurance coverage and employer benefit design. Medicare bridge enrollment and global reviews could expand access, though cost, supply, and long-term outcomes may shape real-world impact.