Bitcoin's Next Peak May Be Capped by Underwater Sellers
Bitcoin has risen about 45% since June to roughly $84,883, but it remains about 33% below its October 2025 record of $126,198. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have drawn large inflows, including $2.4 billion in one week, which could support further demand. The article says underwater buyers may create resistance near $110,000, likely limiting this cycle's high to between $100,000 and $115,000.
Bitcoin's recovery from June's $58,524 close has lifted it to about $84,883 by late September 2026, yet it remains roughly one-third below its October 2025 peak of $126,198. The advance has not erased 2026 losses; the token is still down 3.7% for the year and 23.2% year over year.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs now control about 6.3% of supply. They absorbed $2.4 billion during September 21–25 and could keep buying near $10 billion monthly. However, investors who bought near $110,500 a year ago may sell as prices approach breakeven, creating resistance that may cap the cycle between $100,000 and $115,000.
If Bitcoin stalls below $115,000, recent buyers and ETF holders may see smaller gains, while those who entered near last year's high could exit closer to breakeven. A sustained ETF-driven rise might boost confidence in crypto as an asset class, but resistance could reinforce caution among everyday investors and businesses considering digital-asset exposure. The outcome may influence wealth perceptions and risk appetite, though broader economic effects remain uncertain.