Trump's Declining Texas Support Fuels Democratic Comeback in GOP Stronghold
A Fox News poll shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton in Texas by seven points among registered voters, a stunning result in a state where Republicans have dominated statewide races for decades. Trump's approval rating in Texas has collapsed to 44 percent, down sharply from his 2024 performance, with particular weakness among working-class voters and Latino voters whom he had previously won. Non-MAGA Republicans show lower enthusiasm for the election and are backing Talarico at unusually high rates, suggesting Trump's unpopularity is fragmenting the Republican base.
The Fox News survey reveals a dramatic shift in Trump's standing within Texas, where his approval rating has dropped to 44 percent—a significant decline from his 14-point victory margin in 2024. This deterioration is particularly acute among demographics Trump had strengthened his position with previously: working-class voters now disapprove at higher rates, while Latino support has collapsed from a 55-45 advantage to a severe 38-61 underwater rating.
The poll identifies a critical fracture within the Republican coalition. Non-MAGA Republicans show substantially lower enthusiasm for the election than Democrats, with only half expressing extreme interest compared to two-thirds of Democratic voters. This group demonstrates particular receptiveness to Talarico, with 22 percent backing the Democrat—a striking crossover rate that campaign strategists attribute to voter frustration over Trump's endorsement of Paxton over Senator John Cornyn in the primary.
If these polling trends persist, Texas could experience a significant realignment in statewide politics that might reshape Republican strategies nationally. Lower enthusiasm among traditional Republicans could suppress turnout among moderate conservatives, potentially affecting other races on the ballot. Additionally, the demonstrated erosion of Trump's support among working-class and Latino voters may signal broader vulnerability in populations previously thought secure. The outcome could influence how candidates nationwide calibrate their positioning relative to Trump-endorsed figures.