Rising fuel and fertilizer expenses outweigh grain price gains, CoBank reports

CoBank says corn prices climbed 20% last quarter due to a shrinking US harvest, a sharply smaller European crop, and fewer Ukrainian exports. Soybean crush reached record levels and China resumed steady purchases, while wheat prices stayed high as buyers sought alternatives to Ukrainian and Russian supplies. However, diesel costs are nearly 80% above last year and fertilizer spending is projected to hit a record $40 billion in 2026, offsetting commodity gains.

CoBank links corn's 20% quarterly rise to tighter American supplies, a much smaller European harvest, and reduced Ukrainian shipments, leaving room for further price swings. US soybean processing has hit repeated records, with China buying steadily and total export commitments running at more than twice last year's pace. Wheat remains costly as buyers look beyond Ukrainian and Russian origins.

On the cost side, diesel is almost 80% more expensive than a year ago, a burden likely to intensify during harvest. Fertilizer outlays for 2026 are forecast at an all-time $40 billion, 15% above last year. Biofuel policy is also shaping demand: higher biomass-based diesel obligations support soybean oil use, while ethanol margins have improved with 45Z credits.