Ex-Ukrainian Spy Chief Warns Russian Satellite Network May Steer Drones
A former deputy head of Ukraine’s HUR, Ilya Pavlenko, told Interfax-Ukraine that Russia’s Rassvet satellites could eventually let Moscow control long-range drones over Ukraine in real time. Russia launched roughly 32 Rassvet low-orbit satellites in 2026 as it seeks a domestic alternative to Starlink. Pavlenko also warned the system could increase Russia’s reliance on Chinese technology and serve as a tool for hybrid pressure on NATO states.
Pavlenko, a major general who was HUR deputy chief from 2015 to 2020, spoke to Interfax-Ukraine on Oct. 13. He said Rassvet’s first satellites had problems, but the key issue is whether Moscow can make the network dependable for routine military communications over Ukraine. The system is built by Bureau 1440 and uses terminals linking users to low-orbit satellites.
Because those satellites orbit much closer than geostationary ones, signal travel time is shorter; Pavlenko cited about 500 km altitude and roughly 30 ms latency. He also said Russia is relocating jet-drone production underground, complicating Ukraine’s efforts to disrupt manufacturing before deployment.
If Rassvet becomes reliable, it could affect Ukrainians facing long-range drone attacks and European publics worried about hybrid pressure on NATO states. Military planners may need to reassess interception and manufacturing-disruption strategies, while governments could face harder choices about air defense resources. The prospect may also intensify debates over technological dependence, including reliance on Chinese components, though the system’s actual operational impact remains uncertain.