Palver Poll Shows Tight Brazil Runoff Race
An online survey by Palver released on 21 October 2026 put Flávio Bolsonaro at 50% and Lula at 48% in Brazil’s presidential runoff, within the margin of error. The poll was published four days before the 25 October vote, and Palver’s previous survey had Flávio at 50% and Lula at 49%. Prediction markets cited in the report gave Flávio a substantial lead.
Palver’s 21 October release placed Flávio Bolsonaro at 50% and Lula at 48% in the 25 October runoff, a gap inside the poll’s 2.4-point error range. The institute surveyed 5,000 people online from 18–20 October and funded the work itself; the poll was registered with Brazil’s electoral court as BR-04612/2026. Its prior 15 October survey had Flávio at 50% and Lula at 49%.
Prediction-market figures cited alongside the poll put Flávio’s win probability at 78% on Polymarket and 79% on Kalshi, with Lula at 23% on both platforms as of 21 October. Those prices reflect bets rather than voter sampling.
The close runoff reading may shape how voters, parties and institutions interpret the contest in its final days. A result perceived as within polling error could heighten uncertainty about turnout and post-election acceptance, while market odds may influence investor and media narratives. Civil-society groups and election officials could face added pressure to explain polling limits and ensure public confidence, though the survey itself does not determine the outcome.