Brazil Runoff Remains Close in New Veritá Survey
A Veritá survey released on 21 October put Flávio Bolsonaro at 50.7% and Lula at 49.3% of valid votes, within the one-point margin of error. The poll interviewed 15,554 people from 15 to 19 October, four days before Brazil’s runoff. It showed a slightly narrower gap than Veritá’s previous survey.
The Veritá survey, released 21 October, placed Flávio Bolsonaro at 50.7% and Lula at 49.3% among valid votes, a gap inside the poll’s one-point error margin. Interviewers spoke with 15,554 people between 15 and 19 October, four days before the 25 October runoff.
Compared with Veritá’s 17 October poll, Flávio’s share slipped from 51.1% to 50.7% while Lula’s rose from 48.9% to 49.3%. The survey was registered with Brazil’s electoral court as BR-06396/2026 and funded by the institute itself.
The tight result may heighten uncertainty for Brazilian voters and institutions in the final days, potentially shaping turnout and public debate. Because the runoff decides Latin America’s largest economy, financial markets, currency holders and trade partners could react to perceived odds. Civil society may watch claims about polling accuracy and electoral administration closely.