England's extreme heat deaths pass 40,000, with this summer on track to add more
According to the Office for National Statistics, over 40,000 more people died on the hottest days in England from 1988 to 2025 than expected. The current summer's heatwaves have already caused an estimated 2,877 deaths in May and June alone, nearly double the total for all of 2025. The toll is expected to rise due to climate change and an aging population, with the elderly, children, and the unwell most at risk.
The ONS data covers 1988–2025, excluding this summer’s toll. The UK Health Security Agency counted 2,877 deaths from May–June heatwaves alone, nearly double the entire 2025 summer figure. London recorded the highest heat-attributable deaths, with ambulance calls up 25,000 from last year, surpassing pandemic-era peaks. Hospital emergency departments saw nearly 2.5 million monthly attendances in May–July, with nurses reporting “inhumane” conditions. Historically, cold claimed more lives (139,000) than heat, but the gap is narrowing as hot-day deaths rise. A super El Niño building in the Pacific may worsen 2027 heat.
This trend could strain public health systems further, especially as England’s population ages and heatwaves become more frequent. Vulnerable groups—the elderly, children, and those with chronic conditions—may face rising premature mortality, while healthcare workers contend with worsening workplace stress. Emergency services could see sustained demand, potentially affecting response times for other crises. Without adaptation, societal costs may grow, though the narrowing cold-heat gap suggests shifting seasonal risks that policymakers and communities will need to address.