Swedish centre-left edges ahead as far-right support drops in tight vote
With 95% of districts counted, Sweden's centre-left opposition bloc holds a narrow lead of 176 seats to 173 for the conservative-led government camp. The far-right Sweden Democrats fell to 17.5%, their first decline since entering parliament in 2010, while the Social Democrats recorded one of their weakest results in over a century. Final results may not be known until Wednesday when early and overseas ballots are tallied.
The projected 176-173 seat split leaves Sweden's next government dependent on a razor-thin margin. Early and overseas ballots, tallied Wednesday, could still shift the outcome. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's conservative coalition, which has relied on Sweden Democrats support since 2022, may remain in office even if the left bloc wins, should coalition talks fail.
The Sweden Democrats' decline to 17.5 percent marks their first electoral setback since entering parliament in 2010. Political scientist Anders Sannerstedt attributes the shift partly to voters who previously backed the party solely for its refugee stance. Meanwhile, the Social Democrats' 28.1 percent result, among their weakest in over a century, complicates Magdalena Andersson's path to forming a working majority.
A hung parliament with such a narrow margin could prolong political uncertainty in Sweden, affecting government stability and policy continuity. Voters who supported the far right may feel their priorities are already addressed by mainstream parties that have adopted stricter asylum and policing measures. The outcome may also signal whether Europe's far-right momentum is slowing, potentially influencing political discourse elsewhere. However, the Sweden Democrats' reduced share still leaves them influential, meaning migration and security policies could remain central to Swedish governance regardless of which bloc ultimately forms a government.