Tropical Storm Fay Emerges, But Atlantic Still Lacks a Hurricane This Year
Tropical Storm Fay formed near the Azores, but the Atlantic has yet to see a hurricane this season, a historically quiet year. Fay could briefly reach hurricane strength but is forecast to remain over open ocean as a 'fish storm.' Meanwhile, Pacific systems remain active, including a potential hurricane near Mexico.
Fay’s compact size makes its intensity forecast unusually volatile, with rapid strengthening and weakening both possible. Forecast models diverge sharply on its longevity—one suggests persistence for several days, while another predicts dissipation by midweek—but its track keeps it far from any landmass, rendering it a harmless “fish storm” over open waters.
The Atlantic’s inactivity is historic, marking the latest calendar date without a hurricane since satellite tracking began in 1966. Only two pre-satellite years, 1907 and 1914, recorded zero hurricanes. Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific is far more active, with Invest 99E carrying an 80% development chance and a potential path toward Mexico’s west-central coast, where it could reach hurricane strength.
The record-quiet Atlantic season could reduce hurricane-related disruptions for coastal communities in the U.S. and Caribbean this year, but the active Pacific system may pose a direct threat to Mexico’s west coast, affecting residents and tourism. The absence of Atlantic hurricanes may also shape public perception of climate risk, though a single quiet season does not negate long-term warming trends. Forecast model disagreement highlights inherent uncertainty, which could complicate preparedness messaging for vulnerable regions.